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From the desk of Vance Howard:
The HCM-BuyLine® is clearly positive, and any pullback in the market should be bought. Pullbacks are likely to be shallow given the improving intermediate-term backdrop. First, despite the recent rebound, most cyclicals are still early in new intermediate-term/weekly upturns after trading sideways or correcting between June-October. Weekly momentum indicators, tracking 1-2 quarter shifts, have been progressively turning up since September, and participation continues to broaden which should carry equity markets higher.
The long-term cycle backdrop continues to improve, and more importantly, the longer-term cycle backdrop continues to improve consistent with the early stages of another bull cycle. The S&P is making new relative performance highs versus the Barclays All Aggregate Bond Index, similar to what developed early in 2012 and 2016. If prior secular bull markets are a guide, the S&P could rally to 4400-4600 before a cycle peak develops in 2022-2025.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased 0.3% in October, its sixth consecutive gain, and slightly above the consensus of 0.2%. It was driven by higher prices for food and energy, up 2.4% and 0.8%, respectively. PPI ex-food and energy edged up 0.1%, below the consensus of 0.2%. The goods PPI advanced 0.5%, while services PPI was up a smaller 0.2%. Nearly 40% of the increase in the services PPI was attributed to higher transportation and warehousing prices. On a year-over-year basis, PPI for final demand gained a steady 0.5%, while its core eased slightly to 1.1%. Both have rebounded since earlier this year but continue to indicate low inflation pressures at the producer level, reflecting the significant output and labor market slack created by the recession. Prices were lower than a year ago in three of the four stages of production, rising only in the final stage that primarily produces goods for final consumption. But even there, the increase was smaller than at the start of 2020, which suggests lack of significant pipeline pressures.
Moderna and Pfizer: From a timeline and data quality perspectives, Moderna and Pfizer are, so far, on par. And if one, or both of them make it to the finish line, they will introduce a vaccine unlike any other on the market. Usually, vaccines work by delivering a weakened form of virus into the body. This allows the body to build up antibodies to fight infection. It is only a matter of time before a vaccine is ready for mass distribution.
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This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. Important Disclosure Information Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Howard Capital Management, Inc. (“HCM”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from HCM. Please remember to contact your primary investment professional, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising HCM’s investment management services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. HCM is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the HCM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request. © 2019 Howard Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. Intended for receipt only and not for further distribution without the consent of Howard Capital Management, Inc.
Chair Yoga is a fantastic way for adults, especially older adults, to loosen and stretch painful muscles, lower stress and improve circulation. Just like a traditional yoga practice, chair yoga poses gives you all the health benefits to build strength and balance while reducing anxiety without having to worry about balancing on your head.
We invite you (and friends) to join us Thursdays at 10:00 am (EST) as we go LIVE each week online through Zoom.
To register, click the link below.
Appliances and hot water account for a big part of energy use in your home. So, the kitchen is a great place to start saving energy. Here are a few kitchen energy saving tips:
Tip adapted from Energy.gov[i]
Recipe adapted from My Recipes
[i] Energy.gov, October 16, 2020
Myrecipes.com, November 13, 2020
Stay safe! See you next week!