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From the desk of Vance Howard:
The HCM-BuyLine® remains positive with some pullback, but nothing we are too concerned with. A consolidation in the markets was warranted, and needed, for markets to base and move higher. The sawtooth effect of going up and selling off is the way markets work. In fact, this recent pullback is a good place to add to positions in our opinion.
Our outlook remains unchanged, and that is a bullish sentiment on the longer-term market cycle. We view September’s weakness as part of an intermediate-term consolidation following an impressive surge that pushed most weekly momentum indicators into overbought territory. The tactical overbought condition is incrementally unwinding, which continues to show evidence of bottoming and is supportive of a low by early-mid Q4.
IHME (healthdata.org) and Youyang Gu (COVID-19projections.com) are two models which are being discussed but have completely different views. Be very careful with headlines from the news media about COVID-19; it is not about reporting the news and facts in this incredibly politicized atmosphere. The IHME model is forecasting massive death tolls starting now, and it says they could reach 2000-4000 per day. On the other hand, the Youyang Gu model is stating less than 500 deaths per day after November 1. Who is is correct? So far, Youyang Gu is by far the more accurate model at this point in time. Let us also not forget how bad the Imperial College forecast was back in February. There was a massive forecast error by the Imperial College, which publicly stated we would see a 5-10% death rate of those who had the virus. It was the Imperial College forecast that prompted global policy makers to shut down the economy, and as we know now, people under 40 were 0.01% of the COVID-19 deaths. If you want to put how incompetent the Imperial College forecast was, it would be about the same as a market analysis from a reputable firm stating that the market is going go up 300% in 90 days. I have put both web pages next to the IHME and Youyang Gu if you would like to read more about each one’s model forecast.
Texas Medical Center runs nightly reports on COVID-19 from Harris County and 9 surrounding counties (Harris County is Houston TX, which has approximately 4 million plus people.) The reports are showing dramatic drops in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. This is very encouraging data since it means Labor Day and back-to-school cases are dropping, which is the direction we all would like to see.
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This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.Important Disclosure InformationPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Howard Capital Management, Inc. (“HCM”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from HCM. Please remember to contact your primary investment professional, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising HCM’s investment management services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. HCM is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the HCM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request.© 2019 Howard Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. Intended for receipt only and not for further distribution without the consent of Howard Capital Management, Inc.
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